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Initially, the former US president seemed to embrace a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "severe repercussions" in August in case Putin continued obstructing truce negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted major sanctions on the Russian biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

But, via his latest 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European involvement, he has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Benefiting Invasion

This initiative would effectively favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in peril. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually compromise that same autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president persists to consider the war as a basic land disagreement, as if handing Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not simply about occupying a destroyed area of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that Putin's growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in place the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would require the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a decade of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically compromised.

This region is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to resume the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate additional hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate the nation to cut the size of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, Trump's initiative places no such restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's plan declares: "Every radical belief system and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a handback of seized land in the region to Ukrainian control – how should we believe Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if Russia resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars vary from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the security presence, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Russia from rebuilding his weakened forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

Another parallel deal reportedly would grant the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. However different from a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best defense against future invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to react militarily to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not