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On occasions when the wind blows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects disruptions.

That is when large aerial objects are sent across the border, with crates of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this smuggling operation has caused Lithuania's primary air hub into closure 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are certain they are facing something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an example of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

Government Action

The Lithuanian administration has declared an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus instrumentalises criminal networks to impact adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern flank.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, every night, border units patrol in the frontier area.

The balloons are most common after dark.

Teams establish temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to intercept them.

For now, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a deterrent.

Strategic Motives

The frontier line is now marked by a high security barrier, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into easing international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."