Beyond this Pomp of Vladimir Putin's New Delhi Visit: An India-Russia Bond Which Has Frayed.

This diplomatic language and imagery from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's latest official trip to India hinted at a strong bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the statesmen shared a car journey, echoing a known political gesture. In his comments, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian connection as a "lodestar", founded on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th trip to India during his 25-year tenure and his 20th encounter with Modi after the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Gap Separating Pageantry and Substance

Nevertheless, a significant gap exists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are actually buying less Russian oil due to external pressure. The two nations concluded numerous agreements in areas like mobility, health, food security, naval cooperation, and educational collaboration. However, expected revelations on significant defence contracts failed to come to pass. India has not concluded any substantial defence purchases with Russia since the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in deliveries of equipment and components as Moscow prioritizes its own defence needs.

A Partnership With Diminished Strategic Heft

These developments indicates that the India-Russia relationship no longer holds the same strategic heft it previously possessed. During the Cold War, India maintained preferential trade terms and market access to the USSR and its satellite states. This privileged alliance peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. While both nations have attempted to preserve a semblance of this special tie through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the reality is that their interaction does not have the former importance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the Western world.

Diversification and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial relationship with Moscow. But, as Western pressure increases on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to broaden the relationship into new areas. On Putin's visit, they announced an joint economic programme lasting until 2030, designed to make their ties "more diversified, balanced and long-lasting". This involves improving entry for Indian goods to address a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two covers several key strategic sectors – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Reliability

At an ideological level, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, especially among older generations of officials in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During ongoing tensions between India and the US, where American leaders have issued critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable partner.

This challenge, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration issued during Putin's India trip made no reference to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the conflict have been limited.

Navigating the Dilemma: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This dynamic highlights the inherent complexities in India's international stance. The nation is poised to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, following a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although moves are being made to strengthen cultural exchanges between India and Russia.

How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will succeed, leading to a end of fighting and the removal of a major thorn in its relations with the West. However, should a settlement is reached, if it falls short of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian relationship will undoubtedly persist in European and American governments.