Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
